Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Why Numbers Matter: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Andrew Horowitz and Terry Bradford ($100+ million in combined investment capital) discuss why the S&P500's 1040 is historically a make-or-break level for major market trends. Terry believes the market to be in an overall downtrend, and Andrew is just the host who tries to remain in the middle, and a real Mensch.
I sold all my stocks except 1 on Monday because I haven't really been able to see for the past couple days, but if I had let them keep going I would have been up four or five more percentage points, which is considerably large. The sale is one of the parts I'm still working on, the world being blurry doesn't help.
The best possible way to analyze human behavior is through quantifiable measurement. Of course humans drive the creation of data; the only way to accurately measure the size of the drive is through differentiating the data.
Since all stocks go up or down in price, I would say knowing which stock to buy is about 40% of the equation. Knowing when to buy it is another 30, knowing when to sell is another 30. After this I'm not gonna post this stuff anymore, obviously it brings up some weird animosity issues. I like a good debate but it can't begin with someone wanting to give me a "reality check," because the reality is, my first publicly-announced stock picks made a shitload of money this week.